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2024 Senate · Massachusetts

MassINC Polling Group · fieldwork ended 2024-11-01 (4 days before the election) · 582 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 55% · Republican 33%

D+22.0

The certified result

Democrat 59.81% · Republican 40.00%

D+19.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55 − 33 = 22.00
  2. Actual margin = 59.815 − 40.003 = 19.812
  3. Signed miss = 22.00 − (19.812) = 2.188
  4. Absolute miss = |2.188| = 2.188

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89198, race ID 9514 (538 database).

population: lv