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2024 Senate · Nevada

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2024-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 790 respondents · Online Matched Sample

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 44%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.87% · Republican 46.22%

D+1.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 44 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.866 − 46.223 = 1.643
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (1.643) = 5.357
  4. Absolute miss = |5.357| = 5.357

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89202, race ID 9521 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: rv