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2024 President · North Carolina

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2024-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 987 respondents · Online Matched Sample

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 48%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.65% · Republican 50.86%

R+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 48 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.645 − 50.857 = -3.212
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-3.212) = 2.212
  4. Absolute miss = |2.212| = 2.212

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89203, race ID 8839 (538 database).

This poll asked 4 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: rv