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2024 President · Pennsylvania

OnMessage Inc. · fieldwork ended 2024-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 800 respondents · method not reported

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 49%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.66% · Republican 50.37%

R+1.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 49 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.663 − 50.373 = -1.710
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-1.710) = -0.290
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.290| = 0.290

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89206, race ID 8872 (538 database).

population: lv