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2024 Senate · Pennsylvania

OnMessage Inc. · fieldwork ended 2024-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 800 respondents · method not reported

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 46%

even

The certified result

Democrat 48.60% · Republican 48.82%

R+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 46 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.601 − 48.818 = -0.217
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-0.217) = 0.217
  4. Absolute miss = |0.217| = 0.217

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.2 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89206, race ID 9527 (538 database).

population: lv