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2024 President · Michigan

OnMessage Inc. · fieldwork ended 2024-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 800 respondents · method not reported

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 48%

even

The certified result

Democrat 48.31% · Republican 49.73%

R+1.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 48 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.313 − 49.727 = -1.414
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-1.414) = 1.414
  4. Absolute miss = |1.414| = 1.414

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.4 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89207, race ID 8820 (538 database).

population: lv