2024 Senate · Michigan
OnMessage Inc. · fieldwork ended 2024-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 800 respondents · method not reported
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 46%
D+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.64% · Republican 48.30%
D+0.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 46 = 1.00
- Actual margin = 48.639 − 48.298 = 0.341
- Signed miss = 1.00 − (0.341) = 0.659
- Absolute miss = |0.659| = 0.659
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89207, race ID 9515 (538 database).
population: lv