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2024 Senate · Arizona

OnMessage Inc. · fieldwork ended 2024-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 800 respondents · method not reported

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 48%

even

The certified result

Democrat 50.06% · Republican 47.65%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 48 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.058 − 47.652 = 2.406
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (2.406) = -2.406
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.406| = 2.406

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.4 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89209, race ID 9505 (538 database).

population: lv