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2024 President · Nevada

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2024-10-30 (6 days before the election) · 721 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 47%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.49% · Republican 50.59%

R+3.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 47 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.493 − 50.592 = -3.099
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (-3.099) = 5.099
  4. Absolute miss = |5.099| = 5.099

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89214, race ID 8857 (538 database).

population: lv