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2024 President · Wisconsin

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-11-01 (4 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50.9% · Republican 49.1%

D+1.8

The certified result

Democrat 48.74% · Republican 49.60%

R+0.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.9 − 49.1 = 1.80
  2. Actual margin = 48.737 − 49.596 = -0.859
  3. Signed miss = 1.80 − (-0.859) = 2.659
  4. Absolute miss = |2.659| = 2.659

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89218, race ID 8905 (538 database).

population: lv