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2024 President · Arizona

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-11-01 (4 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49.1% · Republican 50.9%

R+1.8

The certified result

Democrat 46.69% · Republican 52.22%

R+5.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.1 − 50.9 = -1.80
  2. Actual margin = 46.690 − 52.217 = -5.527
  3. Signed miss = -1.80 − (-5.527) = 3.727
  4. Absolute miss = |3.727| = 3.727

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89219, race ID 8759 (538 database).

population: lv