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2024 President · Minnesota

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-11-01 (4 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 52.3% · Republican 47.7%

D+4.6

The certified result

Democrat 50.92% · Republican 46.68%

D+4.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52.3 − 47.7 = 4.60
  2. Actual margin = 50.923 − 46.683 = 4.240
  3. Signed miss = 4.60 − (4.240) = 0.361
  4. Absolute miss = |0.361| = 0.361

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89220, race ID 8823 (538 database).

population: lv