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2024 President · national

Kaplan Strategies · fieldwork ended 2024-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 671 respondents · method not reported

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 48%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.33% · Republican 49.80%

R+1.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 48 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.326 − 49.798 = -1.472
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-1.472) = 0.472
  4. Absolute miss = |0.472| = 0.472

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89238, race ID 8914 (538 database).

population: rv

actual: national share computed from summed statewide votes