2024 President · Iowa
Selzer · fieldwork ended 2024-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 808 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 44%
D+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 42.52% · Republican 55.73%
R+13.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 44 = 3.00
- Actual margin = 42.517 − 55.727 = -13.210
- Signed miss = 3.00 − (-13.210) = 16.210
- Absolute miss = |16.210| = 16.210
The poll overstated the Democrat by 16.2 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89241, race ID 8788 (538 database).
population: lv