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2024 President · Arizona

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2024-10-30 (6 days before the election) · 666 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48.3% · Republican 48.4%

R+0.1

The certified result

Democrat 46.69% · Republican 52.22%

R+5.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.3 − 48.4 = -0.10
  2. Actual margin = 46.690 − 52.217 = -5.527
  3. Signed miss = -0.10 − (-5.527) = 5.427
  4. Absolute miss = |5.427| = 5.427

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89259, race ID 8759 (538 database).

population: lv