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2024 Senate · Florida

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2024-11-01 (4 days before the election) · 2,022 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 48%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.79% · Republican 55.57%

R+12.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 48 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.790 − 55.568 = -12.778
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-12.778) = 9.778
  4. Absolute miss = |9.778| = 9.778

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89260, race ID 9509 (538 database).

population: lv