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2024 President · Ohio

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2024-11-01 (4 days before the election) · 1,254 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43.7% · Republican 52.9%

R+9.2

The certified result

Democrat 43.93% · Republican 55.14%

R+11.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.7 − 52.9 = -9.20
  2. Actual margin = 43.928 − 55.136 = -11.208
  3. Signed miss = -9.20 − (-11.208) = 2.007
  4. Absolute miss = |2.007| = 2.007

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89265, race ID 8863 (538 database).

population: lv