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2024 President · Pennsylvania

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50.5% · Republican 49.5%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.66% · Republican 50.37%

R+1.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.5 − 49.5 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.663 − 50.373 = -1.710
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (-1.710) = 2.710
  4. Absolute miss = |2.710| = 2.710

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89278, race ID 8872 (538 database).

population: lv