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2024 President · North Carolina

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49.4% · Republican 50.6%

R+1.2

The certified result

Democrat 47.65% · Republican 50.86%

R+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.4 − 50.6 = -1.20
  2. Actual margin = 47.645 − 50.857 = -3.212
  3. Signed miss = -1.20 − (-3.212) = 2.012
  4. Absolute miss = |2.012| = 2.012

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89280, race ID 8839 (538 database).

population: lv