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2024 President · Georgia

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48.9% · Republican 51.1%

R+2.2

The certified result

Democrat 48.52% · Republican 50.72%

R+2.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.9 − 51.1 = -2.20
  2. Actual margin = 48.525 − 50.717 = -2.192
  3. Signed miss = -2.20 − (-2.192) = -0.008
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.008| = 0.008

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89281, race ID 8781 (538 database).

population: lv