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2024 Senate · Maryland

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2024-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 468 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49.4% · Republican 41.8%

D+7.6

The certified result

Democrat 54.64% · Republican 42.84%

D+11.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.4 − 41.8 = 7.60
  2. Actual margin = 54.641 − 42.840 = 11.801
  3. Signed miss = 7.60 − (11.801) = -4.202
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.202| = 4.202

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89282, race ID 9513 (538 database).

population: lv