2024 Senate · Michigan
Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2024-11-01 (4 days before the election) · 1,112 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 41%
D+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.64% · Republican 48.30%
D+0.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 41 = 8.00
- Actual margin = 48.639 − 48.298 = 0.341
- Signed miss = 8.00 − (0.341) = 7.659
- Absolute miss = |7.659| = 7.659
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89283, race ID 9515 (538 database).
population: lv