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2024 President · national

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2024-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 1,267 respondents · Online Matched Sample

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 47%

even

The certified result

Democrat 48.33% · Republican 49.80%

R+1.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 47 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.326 − 49.798 = -1.472
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-1.472) = 1.472
  4. Absolute miss = |1.472| = 1.472

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.5 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89288, race ID 8914 (538 database).

This poll asked 4 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: rv

actual: national share computed from summed statewide votes