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2024 President · Michigan

Patriot Polling · fieldwork ended 2024-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 858 respondents · IVR/Text

The poll said

Democrat 49.2% · Republican 48.5%

D+0.7

The certified result

Democrat 48.31% · Republican 49.73%

R+1.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.2 − 48.5 = 0.70
  2. Actual margin = 48.313 − 49.727 = -1.414
  3. Signed miss = 0.70 − (-1.414) = 2.114
  4. Absolute miss = |2.114| = 2.114

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89291, race ID 8820 (538 database).

population: rv