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2024 Senate · Michigan

Patriot Polling · fieldwork ended 2024-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 858 respondents · IVR/Text

The poll said

Democrat 50.3% · Republican 48.8%

D+1.5

The certified result

Democrat 48.64% · Republican 48.30%

D+0.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.3 − 48.8 = 1.50
  2. Actual margin = 48.639 − 48.298 = 0.341
  3. Signed miss = 1.50 − (0.341) = 1.159
  4. Absolute miss = |1.159| = 1.159

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89291, race ID 9515 (538 database).

population: rv