2024 President · North Carolina
Patriot Polling · fieldwork ended 2024-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 799 respondents · IVR/Text
The poll said
Democrat 48.9% · Republican 50.5%
R+1.6
The certified result
Democrat 47.65% · Republican 50.86%
R+3.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48.9 − 50.5 = -1.60
- Actual margin = 47.645 − 50.857 = -3.212
- Signed miss = -1.60 − (-3.212) = 1.612
- Absolute miss = |1.612| = 1.612
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89293, race ID 8839 (538 database).
population: rv