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2024 President · Georgia

Patriot Polling · fieldwork ended 2024-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 818 respondents · IVR/Text

The poll said

Democrat 48.6% · Republican 50.4%

R+1.8

The certified result

Democrat 48.52% · Republican 50.72%

R+2.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.6 − 50.4 = -1.80
  2. Actual margin = 48.525 − 50.717 = -2.192
  3. Signed miss = -1.80 − (-2.192) = 0.392
  4. Absolute miss = |0.392| = 0.392

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89294, race ID 8781 (538 database).

population: rv