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2024 House · New Hampshire

U. New Hampshire · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 1,433 respondents · Probability Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 39%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.99% · Republican 45.93%

D+8.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 39 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.995 − 45.932 = 8.063
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (8.063) = 3.937
  4. Absolute miss = |3.937| = 3.937

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 house_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89297, race ID 9780 (538 database).

population: lv