2024 House · New Hampshire
U. New Hampshire · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 1,359 respondents · Probability Panel
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 39%
D+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.93% · Republican 46.97%
D+6.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 39 = 14.00
- Actual margin = 52.934 − 46.974 = 5.960
- Signed miss = 14.00 − (5.960) = 8.040
- Absolute miss = |8.040| = 8.040
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 house_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89297, race ID 9781 (538 database).
population: lv