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2024 President · Maine

U. New Hampshire · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 1,485 respondents · Probability Panel

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 41%

D+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.40% · Republican 45.46%

D+6.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 41 = 11.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.401 − 45.464 = 6.937
  3. Signed miss = 11.00 − (6.937) = 4.063
  4. Absolute miss = |4.063| = 4.063

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89298, race ID 8817 (538 database).

population: lv