Skip to content

2024 Senate · Maine

U. New Hampshire · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 1,485 respondents · Probability Panel

The poll said

Democrat 7% · Republican 35%

R+28.0

The certified result

Democrat 10.83% · Republican 34.64%

R+23.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 7 − 35 = -28.00
  2. Actual margin = 10.830 − 34.642 = -23.812
  3. Signed miss = -28.00 − (-23.812) = -4.188
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.188| = 4.188

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89298, race ID 9512 (538 database).

population: lv