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2024 President · Massachusetts

U. New Hampshire · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 744 respondents · Probability Panel

The poll said

Democrat 60% · Republican 34%

D+26.0

The certified result

Democrat 61.22% · Republican 36.02%

D+25.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 60 − 34 = 26.00
  2. Actual margin = 61.219 − 36.023 = 25.196
  3. Signed miss = 26.00 − (25.196) = 0.804
  4. Absolute miss = |0.804| = 0.804

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89299, race ID 8811 (538 database).

population: lv