2024 Senate · Massachusetts
U. New Hampshire · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 744 respondents · Probability Panel
The poll said
Democrat 60% · Republican 37%
D+23.0
The certified result
Democrat 59.81% · Republican 40.00%
D+19.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 60 − 37 = 23.00
- Actual margin = 59.815 − 40.003 = 19.812
- Signed miss = 23.00 − (19.812) = 3.188
- Absolute miss = |3.188| = 3.188
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89299, race ID 9514 (538 database).
population: lv