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2024 Senate · Arizona

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 800 respondents · method not reported

The poll said

Democrat 49.3% · Republican 47.2%

D+2.1

The certified result

Democrat 50.06% · Republican 47.65%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.3 − 47.2 = 2.10
  2. Actual margin = 50.058 − 47.652 = 2.406
  3. Signed miss = 2.10 − (2.406) = -0.306
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.306| = 0.306

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89302, race ID 9505 (538 database).

population: lv