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2024 President · Pennsylvania

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2024-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 1,089 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Opt-In Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 46.7% · Republican 48.4%

R+1.7

The certified result

Democrat 48.66% · Republican 50.37%

R+1.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.7 − 48.4 = -1.70
  2. Actual margin = 48.663 − 50.373 = -1.710
  3. Signed miss = -1.70 − (-1.710) = 0.010
  4. Absolute miss = |0.010| = 0.010

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89306, race ID 8872 (538 database).

population: lv