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2024 Governor · Vermont

U. New Hampshire · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 1,167 respondents · Probability Panel

The poll said

Democrat 26% · Republican 65%

R+39.0

The certified result

Democrat 21.83% · Republican 73.43%

R+51.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 26 − 65 = -39.00
  2. Actual margin = 21.832 − 73.431 = -51.599
  3. Signed miss = -39.00 − (-51.599) = 12.599
  4. Absolute miss = |12.599| = 12.599

The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 governor_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89307, race ID 9545 (538 database).

population: lv