2024 House · Vermont
U. New Hampshire · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 1,167 respondents · Probability Panel
The poll said
Democrat 62% · Republican 22%
D+40.0
The certified result
Democrat 62.29% · Republican 29.79%
D+32.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 62 − 22 = 40.00
- Actual margin = 62.290 − 29.791 = 32.499
- Signed miss = 40.00 − (32.499) = 7.501
- Absolute miss = |7.501| = 7.501
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 house_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89307, race ID 9945 (538 database).
population: lv