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2024 President · Maine CD-1

U. New Hampshire · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 801 respondents · Probability Panel

The poll said

Democrat 60% · Republican 36%

D+24.0

The certified result

Democrat 59.80% · Republican 37.97%

D+21.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 60 − 36 = 24.00
  2. Actual margin = 59.798 − 37.968 = 21.830
  3. Signed miss = 24.00 − (21.830) = 2.170
  4. Absolute miss = |2.170| = 2.170

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89309, race ID 8809 (538 database).

population: lv