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2024 President · Maine CD-2

U. New Hampshire · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 683 respondents · Probability Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 48%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.22% · Republican 53.75%

R+9.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 48 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.224 − 53.752 = -9.528
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-9.528) = 5.528
  4. Absolute miss = |5.528| = 5.528

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89310, race ID 8810 (538 database).

population: lv