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2024 President · national

Leger · fieldwork ended 2024-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 886 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49.4% · Republican 48.5%

D+0.9

The certified result

Democrat 48.33% · Republican 49.80%

R+1.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.4 − 48.5 = 0.90
  2. Actual margin = 48.326 − 49.798 = -1.472
  3. Signed miss = 0.90 − (-1.472) = 2.372
  4. Absolute miss = |2.372| = 2.372

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89311, race ID 8914 (538 database).

population: lv

actual: national share computed from summed statewide votes