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2024 President · Wisconsin

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2024-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 1,086 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Opt-In Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 48.2% · Republican 47%

D+1.2

The certified result

Democrat 48.74% · Republican 49.60%

R+0.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.2 − 47 = 1.20
  2. Actual margin = 48.737 − 49.596 = -0.859
  3. Signed miss = 1.20 − (-0.859) = 2.059
  4. Absolute miss = |2.059| = 2.059

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89314, race ID 8905 (538 database).

population: lv