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2024 Senate · Wisconsin

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2024-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 1,086 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Opt-In Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 47.9% · Republican 48.4%

R+0.5

The certified result

Democrat 49.33% · Republican 48.48%

D+0.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.9 − 48.4 = -0.50
  2. Actual margin = 49.333 − 48.484 = 0.849
  3. Signed miss = -0.50 − (0.849) = -1.349
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.349| = 1.349

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89314, race ID 9534 (538 database).

population: lv