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2024 President · Michigan

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2024-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 1,079 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Opt-In Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 47.4% · Republican 47.8%

R+0.4

The certified result

Democrat 48.31% · Republican 49.73%

R+1.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.4 − 47.8 = -0.40
  2. Actual margin = 48.313 − 49.727 = -1.414
  3. Signed miss = -0.40 − (-1.414) = 1.014
  4. Absolute miss = |1.014| = 1.014

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89315, race ID 8820 (538 database).

population: lv