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2024 Senate · Michigan

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2024-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 1,079 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Opt-In Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 47.3% · Republican 47.4%

R+0.1

The certified result

Democrat 48.64% · Republican 48.30%

D+0.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.3 − 47.4 = -0.10
  2. Actual margin = 48.639 − 48.298 = 0.341
  3. Signed miss = -0.10 − (0.341) = -0.441
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.441| = 0.441

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89315, race ID 9515 (538 database).

population: lv