2024 Senate · California
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2024-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 61% · Republican 35%
D+26.0
The certified result
Democrat 58.75% · Republican 41.25%
D+17.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 61 − 35 = 26.00
- Actual margin = 58.750 − 41.250 = 17.500
- Signed miss = 26.00 − (17.500) = 8.499
- Absolute miss = |8.499| = 8.499
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89320, race ID 10013 (538 database).
population: lv