2024 Senate · California
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2024-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 60% · Republican 37%
D+23.0
The certified result
Democrat 58.87% · Republican 41.13%
D+17.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 60 − 37 = 23.00
- Actual margin = 58.873 − 41.127 = 17.746
- Signed miss = 23.00 − (17.746) = 5.255
- Absolute miss = |5.255| = 5.255
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89320, race ID 9506 (538 database).
population: lv