2024 President · Florida
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2024-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 44% · Republican 51%
R+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 42.99% · Republican 56.09%
R+13.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44 − 51 = -7.00
- Actual margin = 42.988 − 56.088 = -13.100
- Signed miss = -7.00 − (-13.100) = 6.100
- Absolute miss = |6.100| = 6.100
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89321, race ID 8778 (538 database).
population: lv