2024 Senate · Florida
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2024-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 43% · Republican 50%
R+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 42.79% · Republican 55.57%
R+12.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 43 − 50 = -7.00
- Actual margin = 42.790 − 55.568 = -12.778
- Signed miss = -7.00 − (-12.778) = 5.778
- Absolute miss = |5.778| = 5.778
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89321, race ID 9509 (538 database).
population: lv