2024 President · Michigan
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2024-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 47%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.31% · Republican 49.73%
R+1.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 47 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 48.313 − 49.727 = -1.414
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (-1.414) = 3.414
- Absolute miss = |3.414| = 3.414
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.4 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89322, race ID 8820 (538 database).
population: lv