2024 President · Minnesota
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2024-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 44%
D+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.92% · Republican 46.68%
D+4.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 44 = 7.00
- Actual margin = 50.923 − 46.683 = 4.240
- Signed miss = 7.00 − (4.240) = 2.761
- Absolute miss = |2.761| = 2.761
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89323, race ID 8823 (538 database).
population: lv